Hamas and the "Two Level" Strategy
Dr. Asaf Maliach
The Local Elections: a Boost for Hamas
The Hamas movement has scored two major successes recently. The first was in the recent local elections that took place on December 15, 2005, the fourth of five rounds.[2] Secondly, Hamas has benefited from the internal struggles within Fatah between veteran members and young guard, which have resulted both in Fatah's loss of control of many local councils in the Palestinian Authority, and has led to a split of "The Future" list, led by Marwan Barghuthi, from Abu Mazen's list. This has increased Hamas' chances for victory in the elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council, expected to take place on January 25, 2006, and for the establishment of a radical Islamic entity between Israel and Egypt.
These circumstances brought Egypt to press Abu Mazen to compromise with the Fatah youth, represented by Marwan Barghuthi and Muhammad Dahlan, in order to facilitate unity between the two competing parties. Egypt naturally views the establishment of an Islamic entity in its backyard as a primary concern, as such an entity would serve as an inspiration for strengthening the Muslim Brotherhood inside Egypt. Like Egypt, the United States and the European Union have taken an interest in seeing the various candidates of Fatah running on a unified list so as to ease their competition against Hamas for the Legislative Council.[3] Fatah officials also understand that in order not to allow Hamas to recap its success in the local elections, they must set aside their differing opinions and run on a single unified list.[4]
The results of the local elections, coupled with the stated declaration of Hamas that it is determined to participate in the general elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council have led the US and the EU to state that if Hamas wins the elections, this could end the supply of foreign aid to the Palestinian Authority. It should be noted that the US is opposed to Hamas even participating in the elections, on the grounds that it is impossible to support a political party that espouses the use of violent methods and does not recognize the existence of the state of Israel. Israel welcomed the American and European stance, and clarifies that victory for Hamas in the elections will harm the peace process and will rewind the regional situation by fifty years.[5]
In response, senior Hamas officials denounced the American and European "interference" in the Palestinian elections. Sami Abu Zuhri, a spokesman for Hamas, condemned the foreign interference and argued that the international pressure points to a clear and biased tendency in favor of Israel. Sa'id Siyam, member of Hamas's political leadership, argued that the US and the rest of the world must accept the will of the Palestinian voter as displayed in the local elections. Siyam points to the American accusation that Iran interfered in the Iraqi elections, while the US allows itself to freely intervene in the Palestinian elections.
Khalid Mash'al, head of the political office of Hamas, also denounced the American and European interference. According to him, the EU contradicts itself, since on the one hand it is threatening to stop assistance to the Palestinians if Hamas wins the general elections, while on the other hand the EU recognizes the influence of Hamas on the Palestinian street - as seen primarily on the background of the local elections - and is involved in discussions with Hamas representatives in capital cities throughout the world, in the West Bank, and in the Gaza Strip. Similarly, senior figures in the Palestinian Authority, such as Minister of Local Authority Sa'ib 'Ariqat and Palestinian Authority Spokesman Nabil Abu Radina, sided with Hamas and rejected the "interference of the EU and US in the internal politics of the Palestinians." According to Abu Radina, there is no point in holding democratic elections if any party is restricted from participation.[6]
On Friday, December 23, 2005, thousands of Hamas supporters marched in Gaza in protest of the criticism announced by the EU and the US on the movement's participation in the elections. The protestors called upon Abu Mazen to hold the elections as scheduled. Hamas Spokesman Mushir al-Masri said that "we came to tell the US and Bush and anybody else that labels Hamas as a terror organization that we became the choice of the whole nation."[7] In parallel, Khalid Mash'al called upon Abu Mazen not to delay the elections because of the difference of opinion within Fatah:[8] "we are calling on Fatah to unite, since Hamas is not interested in winning at the cost of others' crises. On the contrary, we want to compete with the big ones and cooperate with them. The placation within Fatah is a national interest, since the Palestinians today are facing two foundational issues - the first, defense of the Palestinian nation, resistance to the occupation, and liberation of the homeland. The second: construction and development."[9]
The Hamas movement's list, al-Islah wa-al-Taghyir ("Change and Reform") is led by Isma'il Haniyya, is represented by a diverse collection of national figures, academics, free-lance professionals, trade unions, and even women (some of them widows of popular Hamas activists that were killed by Israel, in order to awaken national identification in the public). The party list also includes activists & militants imprisoned in Israeli prisons. Through the use of strategic advisors and professional campaign managers, Hamas is planning to exploit the frustration and disappointment felt among the wider public vis-à-vis the current corrupt regime. Hamas' goal is to win as many of the 132 seats in the Legislative Council as possible.[10] Tom Lantos, a member of the Committee on Foreign Relations of the US House of Representatives, estimated that Hamas can be expected to win at least one-quarter of the 132 parliamentary seats.[11]
Hamas has yet to decide if it will participate in the new Palestinian government
The Hamas movement has yet to decide if it is interested in participating in the Palestinian government that will be formed following the elections. Sa'id Siyam, representing the "internal Hamas", declared that the movement is interested in sitting in the government in order "to push the program of reform and the struggle against corruption." Furthermore, he declared that Hamas is "keeping an eye on one of the Palestinian security mechanisms that is considered one of the sources of corruption."[12] In contrast to Siyam, Khalid Mash'al, representing the "external Hamas", declared that Hamas has yet to decide if it will actually sit in the Palestinian government, and any decision in this regard will only be made following the elections. According to Mash'al, "Hamas is not interested in gaining power or profits, but rather it is interested in serving the Palestinian nation."[13]
In the wake of the success of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt
The Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt, the parent-movement of Hamas, has attempted to penetrate the political sphere after 14 years of existence. Similarly, Hamas is fulfilling this role after 19 years. In both cases, the strengthening of popularity in the general public has created a determination to compete in the parliamentary elections. In 1942, Hasan al-Bana, the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, submitted his candidacy to the Egyptian parliament, but was later "persuaded" by political authorities, among them Prime Minister Mustafa al-Nahas, to withdraw his entry.[14] In the 1945 elections, the Muslim Brotherhood ran for office but did not win any seats due to election fraud. Between then and the early 1980s, the movement avoided Egyptian politics. Beginning in the 1980s, and true up to today, the movement has gained some victory in the political sphere throughout the Arab world, primarily in Egypt, where in the recent elections for the National Council (the Egyptian parliament), held in December 2005, the movement won 88 out of 454 seats (the incumbent National Party won 325 seats while other opposition parties collectively received only 14 seats), a substantial growth relative to the previous elections in 2000, when the Muslim Brotherhood won a mere 15 parliamentary seats.[15]
Hamas has clearly internalized the example of the gains achieved by the Muslim Brotherhood in the recent elections to the Egyptian parliament. It is plain that, as a result of these political achievements, the US has changed its stance and is now willing to open a diplomatic channel with the Egyptian movement. According to Hamas, "the situation proves that it is impossible to ignore the Muslim Brotherhood movement and the will of the Arab, Islamic, and Palestinian voter."[16]
No change in Hamas' policy of attacks against Israel
The involvement of Hamas in the Palestinian elections and its probable intentions to join the ranks of the PLO do not in any way point to a change in policy or an abandonment of the armed struggle against Israel. On December 25, 2005, in an interview with the Hizbullah satellite television network Al-Manar, Khalid Mash'al declared that "there is no other option that will bring about a cessation of the Zionist aggression, an end to the occupation, the return of Palestinian national rights, and the release of prisoners other than the path of (military) resistance. The resistance is a strategy that is not subject to change, no matter what takes place in the Palestinian theater following the elections… Hamas simultaneously carries the reform and anti-corruption slogan as well as the resistance to occupation."[17] Further support for Mash'al's stance can be found in an article in Hamas's Falastin al-Muslima (The Muslim Palestine) Journal (December 2005) and written by Nizar Ramadan, one of Hamas' senior members currently imprisoned in Israel. Ramadan argued that "Hamas is the one and only in the Palestinian sphere that refuses to sacrifice its stance and is intent to operate on two parallel levels: the military level and the political level. Thus the movement is delaying the call to disarm."[18]
To both remarks it is necessary to add Clause 13 of the Hamas charter, which clearly states that "there is no other solution to the Palestinian problem other than Jihad. The means of political initiation and the various international agents are merely scorns."
There exist three factors that drove Hamas's decision to take part in the Legislative Council elections: firstly, there exists a strong will within Hamas to translate the popular support it received during the first four rounds of the local elections in the Palestinian Authority between December 2004 and December 2005 into political power. Senior Hamas officials have stated that even if the movement becomes part of the new government, it will not cease to carry out attacks against Israel. Hamas has further stated that while it will be ready to negotiate with any other foreign state, including the US and the EU, it will under no circumstances negotiate with Israel.[19] Thus, through its participation in the political game, Hamas will be able to form an obstructing force that will prevent Abu Mazen from fulfilling the "Road Map" and signing a peace treaty with Israel.
Secondly, there is the possibility of changing the foreign perception of Hamas as a "terrorist organization", as seen by the example of Hizballah in Lebanon, where, at least in the eyes of the EU, the political wing of the movement is viewed as a legitimate organization and only the military wing is considered a terrorist organization. Thirdly, Hamas is hoping that its participation in the Palestinian elections will grant senior members of the movement immunity from targeted expulsion measures by Israel.
Summary and conclusions
The elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council place Hamas before a difficult dilemma, between its ideological commitments as an Islamic movement and its immediate needs as a political entity. On the one hand, boycotting the elections will mean that it will be sidelined politically, at a time when the movement enjoys widespread public support. On the other hand, participation in the elections is likely to force Hamas to accept the rules of the parliamentary game, including making certain sacrifices in both its political and religious objectives. In the 1996 elections, the latter consideration emerged over the former, as Hamas refused to participate in the political process on the grounds that the elections were held in the shadow of the Oslo Accords (which the movement rejected in their entirety). Nevertheless, in the upcoming 2006 elections, it seems that the first consideration takes priority over the second, not only following the results of the local elections, which indicate a substantial strengthening of Hamas support in the Palestinian street, but also because of the collapse of the Oslo Accords. It is not clear what political and religious sacrifices Hamas will be ready to make in the future. What is clear, however, is that in the armed struggle against Israel no compromises will be made, and that Hamas will continue to adhere to its mission of Jihad. It is safe to assume that the armed struggle will likely be carried out through the blurring of the link between the political party and the movement's military wing, as seen in the Hizbullah model in Lebanon.
In spite of the fact that Hamas views the Legislative Council elections as an existential campaign, it is uncertain whether the movement will help form the new government, or even whether it will participate in it. By Hamas' lights, winning 25%-30% of the parliamentary seats and sitting in the opposition will also be seen as a victory.[20] As a result of the economic deficit and the vulnerable political situation, it should not be ruled out that Hamas would even prefer a scenario in which it will be able to pass laws in the Legislative Council while simultaneously being able to criticize the government from the outside.
The threats by the US and the EU to stop foreign aid to the Palestinian Authority in the event that Hamas takse part in the elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council has placed Abu Mazen in a political tangle. On the one hand, he believes that Hamas participation in the elections will ease his goal of disarming the movement, as necessitated by the "Road Map". On the other hand, Hamas involvement is likely to result in the curbing of foreign aid. Considering the poverty prevailing under the Palestinian Authority, and the tendency of the Palestinian public to blame the incumbent regime, Abu Mazen can not allow himself to lose the financial assistance to the Palestinian Authority from foreign sources. Nevertheless, as of publication of this article, Abu Mazen has not shown any signs that he is planning to prevent Hamas from participating in the political process-nor of provoking a confrontation with the movement-even at the cost of loosing foreign aid.
As for Abu Mazen's expectations of disarming Hamas after its entry into the Palestinian parliament, he is in for a disappointment, so long as the Hamas Charter remains the same. On the contrary, senior Hamas figures are not hiding their intentions of continuing the movement's armed struggle against Israel in parallel to its political activity. Thus, it must be stressed that Hamas participation in the Legislative Council elections does not indicate, in any form, its intentions to disarm. Hamas will continue the armed struggle against Israel until the latter is wiped off the face of the earth. There is no doubt that Hamas is determined to "go all the way", even in spite of the threats to impose economic sanctions against the Palestinian Authority by the US and EU.
Since its establishment, Hamas recognized the possibility of using Western democracy (characterized by Mahmud al-Zahar as "a preliminary and worse form of dictatorship") as the means for gaining influence and power, especially through municipal and trade unions elections, as a counterweight to the regime. Hamas' readiness to participate in Western-style democratic processes and to accept the anti-Islamic system for the sake of unity during a period of national struggle, is a result of pragmatic considerations and long-term vision, rather than ideological concerns.[21] The use of Western-stlye democracy - which is based on the "abhorred" principle of "people's sovereignty" - in fact represents a temporary compromise before the rise to power at a later date, when an Islamic democracy will be implemented based on the principle of "divine sovereignty" ("Hakimiyya"). In order to prevent any objection from the general population, Hamas spokesmen have constantly declared that the movement will not exploit democracy in order to rise to power and implement a tyrannical Islamic regime.
Finally, since the Islamic principle of "consultation" ("Shura"), which comprises an important element of Islamic government, requires the ruler to consult with an elite group but not necessarily to accept their opinions - it does not guarantee the basic rights of the citizens. In other words, the freedom of the subjects is dependent upon the charity of the ruler. Thus, the term democracy, according to Hamas, does not refer to liberties or the defense of the citizen's rights, but rather to the principle of civic participation in the political process under an Islamic regime, similar to the current political system in Iran.[22] In this context, it is still uncertain whether the Palestinians will grant a majority to Hamas in the upcoming Legislative Council elections as seen in the local elections, even if the public is convinced (rightly so) that the incumbent regime is corrupt.
Notes:
[1] This article was written in the context in which the Palestinian elections will be held at the appointed time, the Hamas movement will participate in the elections, and Fatah will be running on a unified campaign. One issue that is yet unresolved, correct to the time this article is published, is the issue of voter eligibility of the residents of east Jerusalem.
[2] Arnon, Reguler, "Ha-Hamas hevisa et ha-Fatah ba-bhirot ha-meqomiyot" ("Hamas defeats Fatah by a landslide in the local elections"), Ha'aretz, (December 18, 2005). Internet: http://new.walla.co.il/?w=//826541. (Hebrew). In the fourth round of elections, held on December 15, 2005, Hamas won in six of the seven largest authorities. The movement currently rules in local authorities where 1.1 million Palestinians reside, compared to the 700,000 Palestinian residents that are under the authority of Fatah. One-half million people reside in authorities where independent representatives won or where neither of the two major parties received a clear majority, and some 900,000 reside in authorities that are set to hold elections in February 2006 such as Hebron, Tul-karm, Gaza City, and Khan-Yunis.
[3] Danny, Rubinstein, "Ha-pahad meha-Hamas garam le-Abu Mazen levater" ("The fear of Hamas caused Abu Mazen to waive"), Ha'aretz, (December 23, 2005). Internet: http://www.haaretz.co.il/hasite/
pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=661664&contrassID=1. (Hebrew).
[4] "Fatah tuwahhid Qa'imataha wa-Munathamat al-Tahrir tatamasak bi-maw'id al-intikhabat" ("Fatah unites its list and the PLO sticks to the appointed election date"), al-Jazeera, (December 23, 2005). Internet: http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/
C668705D-2F73-4304-A96D-22AA6B0166AA.htm. (Arabic).
[5]Corinne, Heller, "Hamas Poll Win Threatens Aid for Palestinians", Reuters, (December 18, 2005). Internet: http://today.reuters.com/news/
newsArticleSearch.aspx?storyID=94307+18-Dec-2005+RTRS&srch=hamas; "Uruba tuwaqqif musa'adatiha lil-falastiniyin idha wasalat Hamas lil-Sulta" ("Europe will halt aid to Palestinians if Hamas rises to power"), al-Jazeera, (December 18, 2005). Internet: http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/
exeres/FAAFB196-1069-4FBE-9824-B1691F56AB78.htm. (Arabic); "Tahdir Amrici min musharaqat Hamas bil-intikhabat al-tashri'iyya" ("American Warning against Hamas Participation in Legislative Council elections"), al-Jazeera, (December 17, 2005). Internet: http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/
exeres/912E15CC-3E97-40B1-AEB3-7A4A96411BB0.htm. (Arabic).
[6]"Europe will halt aid to Palestinians if Hamas rises to power", Ibid; "Al-Sulta tarfud al-tadakhul al-Amrici bil-intikhabat al-falastiniyya" ("Palestinian Authority denounces American involvement in Palestinian elections"), al-Jazeera, (December 17, 2005). Internet http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/
649DD618-1358-4BE6-8ACD-0ADE8FAD1D2B.htm. (Arabic); "Hamas tafuzu bi-baladiyat al-mudun wa-tarfudu al-mawqif al-Amrici" ("Hamas wins in the municipalities and rejects the American stance"), al-Jazeera, (December 17, 2005). Internet: http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/
exeres/744BF036-4289-4084-9D73-FC7675066912.htm. (Arabic); "Liqa' al-ustadh Khalid Mash'al ma'a qanat al-Manar al-fada'iya lil-barnamaj 'madha ba'd'" ("Meeting with Mr. Khalid Mash'al on the satellite television network al-Manar for the program 'What After?'"), The Palestinian Information Center, (December 25, 2005). Internet: http://www.palestine-info.net/arabic/hamas/
hewar/2005/khaled1.htm. (Arabic).
[7] Nidal, al-Mughrabi, "Thousands Join Hamas March against US, EU in Gaza", Reuters, (December 24, 2005). Internet: http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?
file=/2005/12/24/worldupdates/2005-12-24T000652Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_-229273-1&sec=worldupdates
[8]"Mash'al: Hamas ta'tazim tashkil tayar watani wase' ma'a al-fa'izin fi al-majlis al-tashri'i al-falastini al-murtaqab" ("Mash'al: Hamas aims to form wide national mainstream with the victors of the upcoming elections to Palestinian Legislative Council"), al-Quds (PA), (December 25, 2005), p.4. (Arabic).
[9]'Abd al-Ra'uf, Arna'ut, "Hal turid harakat Hamas haqan… an tahkuma?" ("Does Hamas really want…to rule?"), al-Ayyam (PA), (December 25, 2005), p. 1. (Arabic).
[10]"Berosh reshimat Hamas la-bhirot: Isma' il Haniyya" ("At the head of Hamas list for elections: Isma'il Haniyya"), Ynet, (December 14, 2005). Internet: http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3184451,00.html. (Hebrew); Moshe El'ad, "Hamas ha'atractivi" ("The attractive Hamas"), Ynet, (December 14, 2005). Internet: http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3183171,00.html. (Hebrew); Nizar, Ramadan, "Hamas bayna al-i'tiqalat wa-al-intikhabat" ("Hamas between the arrests and the elections"), Falastin al-Muslima (London), (December 2005), p. 29. (Arabic).
[11]"Na'atzor hasiyua' im ha-Hamas tishtatef" ("We will curb the aid if Hamas participates"), Ma'ariv, (December 17, 2005). Internet: http://www.nrg.co.il/online/1/ART1/021/414.html. Hebrew).
[12]"Hamas ma'niya bil-indimam ila al-hukuma ba'da al-intikhabat al-tashri'iyya" ("Hamas interested in joining the government following elections to Palestinian Legislative Council"), Al-Quds, (December 19, 2005), p. 1. (Arabic); "al-Sulta tudafi'u 'an haq Hamas bi-khawd al-intikhabat" ("Palestinian Authority protects Hamas's right to participate in elections"), al-Jazeera, (December 19, 2005). Internet: http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/
exeres/2C016D1D-4719-450E-B9AA-BDF6E4533C94.htm(Arabic); =In the case that Hamas will decide to take part in the Palestinian government, it can be assumed that it will set its eyes towards the ministry of education, since via this body it will be possible to regulate the subject matter of the educational system, so that they will serve the objectives of the movement. In the long term, this is a potential threat to the stability of the region and to the chance of establishing an enduring peace between the Palestinians and Israel.
[13]"Mash'al: Hamas aims to form wide national mainstream with the victors of the upcoming elections to Palestinian Legislative Council", Ibid.
[14]'Uthman, Raslan, al-Tarbiya al-siyasiyya 'ind jama'at "al-Ikhwan al-Muslimun" (The political education of the "Muslim Brotherhood"), (Cairo: Dar al-Nashr wa-al-Tawzi' al-Islamiyya, 1989), p. 152.
[15]"al-'Aathar al-ba'ida lil-intikhabat al-Misriyya" ("The long-term effects of the elections in Egypt"), al-Jazeera, (December 12, 2005). Internet: http://www.aljazeera.net/NR
/exeres/21509115-DC1F-44AA-B4D5-C7F113AB736F.htm (Arabic); "al-Ikhwan ya'tabiruna fawzahum tahadiyan lil-hizb al-hakim bi-Misr" ("Muslim Brotherhood views their victory as a challenge to the ruling party in Egypt"), al-Jazeera, (November 27, 2005). Internet: http://www.aljazeera.net/NR/
exeres/4765960A-067B-48B5-8C3B-0056520E9B32.htm (Arabic); Candidates of the Muslim Brotherhood movement ran in the parliamentary elections as independent representatives, since the movement is not recognized as a legal party in Egypt that can nominate political candidates. However, every Egyptian and Arab media outlet treated them as representatives of the movement.
[16]"Hamas: musta'idun lil-hiwar ma'a aya dawla ajnabiyya bi-istithna' Isra'il" ("Hamas: prepared to negotiate with every foreign country except Israel"), al-Ayyam, (December 18, 2005), p. 21. (Arabic).
[17]"Meeting with Mr. Khalid Mash'al on the satellite television network al-Manar for the program 'What After?'", Ibid.
[18]Ramadan, Ibid, p. 29.
[19]"Hamas interested in joining the government following elections to Palestinian Legislative Council", Ibid; "Hamas: prepared to negotiate with every foreign country except Israel", p. 1.
[20]Ramadan, Ibid, p. 29.
[21] Meir, Litvak, "Hamas: Islam, Political Identity, and Jihad", in Meir Litvak (ed.), Islam and Democracy in the Arab World, (Tel Aviv: The United Kibbutz, 1998), pp. 170-171. (Hebrew).
[22] Litvak, Ibid, p. 173.