Reprinted with permission from PolicyWatch, #755 May 6, 2003,
Analysis of Near East policy from the scholars and associates of The Washington Institute. Nervous about recent Middle East developments and major threats looming in the future, Hizballah is taking defensive steps inside Lebanon and stepping up its rhetoric against the United States

After the elimination of most of its bases in Afghanistan, al-Qaida has activated other camps in other countries. According to Western intelligence sources, some of these bases are in the former Soviet republic of Georgia and in the region of Chechnya. Nor have recent arrests—such as the capture in Pakistan of Walid Mohammed Bin Attash, one of the most wanted al-Qaida fugitives—been of as effective in removing the network’s leadership as some had hoped. New individuals or previously dormant individuals have already stepped in to fill the void. The fact that al-Qaida’s operational capabilities are scattered around the world in loosely affiliated cells makes it difficult to predict where the next attack will occur and to thwart it in time.

The most critical test facing the nascent Palestinian government is the immediate task of weeding out the logistical support networks that facilitate attacks under the cover of charitable or humanitarian activities.

in May, two British citizens carried out a suicide attack on a popular jazz-pub in Tel-Aviv. Assif Muhammad Hanif and Omar Han Sharif were taken from a human reservoir of terrorists which has supplied fighters for “Jihadist” struggles worldwide, from Chechnya to Afghanistan.

In the wake of the second checkpoint bombing, it seems almost certain that more innocent Iraqi civilians will die as the result of Coalition soldiers’ legitimate fear of suicide attacks.

The recent explosion of an Iraqi car bomb north of Najaf apparently signals the next stage of the campaign in Iraq – the stage of the use of suicide attacks.

As the war in Iraq intensifies, reports of 'peace demonstrations' as well as more explicitly anti-US and Islamist extremist protests accumulate across South Asia. These have been given great prominence in the media and have fed Western apprehensions that the Iraqi campaign will give rise to new armies of anti-US, anti-West, Islamist extremist terrorists, and a radical escalation of terrorism in the foreseeable future, as Muslims express their 'anger' against America's 'unjust war'.

As the campaign against Iraq gets underway, security and military experts around the world are busy attempting to second guess Saddam Hussein and discover his strategy, in particular, what measures he intends to use against the U.S. and its allies.

On 10 March a declaration appeared on an Islamic Arab internet forum—Sawt al-Haq[1], affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood—announcing the establishment of the Hamas movement in Kuwait. According to the declaration, the Kuwaiti branch of Hamas was formed specifically in order to fight the American forces in the region.

At first glance Hizballah, Iran and Syria seem to be a triangle coalition without any link to the fourth player, Iraq. Yet, in fact, much of their strategy during 2002 has been shaped by an “objective” alliance, to use a term dear to the Marxists-Leninists—an alliance they forged in face of the U.S. determination to wage a war against Iraq. Hizballah has been at the forefront of this strategy, as an independent player on its own, and as the champion of Syria and Iran’s strategic interests.