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18/6/2012 The Iranian threats “to attack Israel and to spread the Syria crisis to other places” should be taken seriously

Ely Karmon

Those who evaluate, as they did wrongly in the past, that Hezbollah’s Lebanese interests and internal political agenda will prevail and Nasrallah and the other leaders will disobey orders from Tehran, do not grasp the umbilical religious, political and economic bond to Iran.

Hezbollah’s behavior in the Syrian crisis is a good example of the length to which its leaders are ready to go in order to preserve the Iranian influence there and their own survival as the major Lebanese force.

Hezbollah without a strong Iranian patron and a Syrian sponsor would in any case become a Lebanese Shiite lone actor surrounded by revengeful Sunni internal and external enemies.

There is therefore need in the next weeks and months for a careful monitoring of Iranian, Syrian and Hezbollah declarations and operational moves and at the same time deterrent declarations and moves by the Israeli, US and Western leaders.

3/5/2012 AQAP Inspire 8 & 9 Magazine

Ely Karmon

On May 2, 2012, Issues 8 and 9 of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's English-language jihadi magazine Inspire were posted, probably to balance the Obama’s administration’s celebrations of the killing of Osama bin Laden.

25/4/2012 What Le Pen's success means for Europe's far-right

Ely Karmon

Le Pen is betting on Sarkozy’s defeat on May 6th, followed by an implosion of his party, the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP). This will permit her party to run in the best conditions for the legislative elections this June, for what she terms the “third round”, in order to build“a new right opposition,” allowing her to become “the glue for a new sovereign-patriotic movement.” It remains to be seen if this strategy will succeed in transforming the FN into the strongest far-right party in one of the key states in the European Union, with all its implications for France and Europe itself.

First published by Haaretz

12/4/2012 Sanctions unlikely to affect Iran’s nuclear aim

Leonard A. Cole

The likelihood of economic sanctions persuading the Iranian leadership to abandon its quest for nuclear weapons is very low; the record of economic sanctions is not good: long-standing international sanctions remain in place against North Korea, Ivory Coast, and Somalia without noticeable effects on their policies; embargoes against Serbia and Libya ended, as with Iraq, only after military intervention forced change.

First published by Homeland Security News Wire

10/4/2012 Turkey - Iran Tensions

Ely Karmon

In a June 2012 Jerusalem Post article titled "A devil’s advocate view of ‘new’ Mideast", I stressed that one of the results of the so-called "Arab Spring" is the growing competition between Turkey and Iran for hegemony in the Middle East, on the one hand and the escalation in sectarian strife in the region, specifically the possibility of enhanced Kurdish assertiveness, especially in Turkey.

3/4/2012 Dangerous liaisons

Miri Halperin Wernli, Boaz Ganor and Mollie Shields-Uehling

Despite the global focus on the dangers of systematic and organised crime, the pharmaceutical industry has revealed itself to be vulnerable to acts of terrorism. Dr. Miri Halperin Wernli, Dr. Boaz Ganor and Mollie Shields- Uehling reveal the steps that the industry should take to minimise risks to staff, products and patients. 

As published in World Pharmaceutical Frontiers magazine.

25/3/2012 Toulouse Gunman’s Link to UK Extremists

Peter Neumann, Alexander Hitchens, and Scott Kleinmann

News reports today have linked the Toulouse gunman responsible for the murders of seven people, now identified as French citizen Mohammed Merah, to a recently banned French extremist group with connections to Britain.

Named Forsane Alizza (FA – the Knights of Pride), the group bears many similarities to the UK-based al-Muhajiroun/Islam4UK network.

First published by The International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation

12/3/2012 Iran-Hamas Crisis and the Present Violence Flare in Gaza

Ely Karmon

Israel is extremely worried that Sinai could become the new platform for Palestinian terrorism from Gaza, possibly allied with al-Qaeda and Egyptian Salafist elements. Military strikes against terrorists in Egyptian territory, not sufficiently secured by its authorities, could seriously endanger the already sensitive relations with Egypt and limit Israel’s margin of maneuver against terrorism activity from Gaza.  The present operation should thus try to dissuade the Palestinian terrorist groups from using the Sinai and convince them that they will pay for such activities in Gaza itself.

9/3/2012 The Jan-Feb 2012 Campaign of Iranian Terrorist Attacks against Israeli Targets in Central and South-East Asia: Background and Patterns of Activity

Ely Karmon

In an article published in 1998 by the Middle East Quarterly, Dr. Ely Karmon described the patterns of Iranian terrorism and its ideological and strategic motivations since the beginning of the Khomeinist regime in 1979. His recommendation at that time was that the West must convince the hardline Iranian leaders that any future resort to terrorism will be met with determination and that its price for Iran generally and the leaders personally would be too high to pay.

Since the middle of the 1990s Iran and Hezbollah have avoided to stage attacks in Europe, especially after the April 1997 trial of the so called “Mikonos restaurant” affair, when a German court convicted four Iranians in the 1992 murders of dissident Iranian/Kurdish leader Sadiq Sarafkindi and three of his colleagues in the Berlin restaurant and found that the killings were ordered by the highest state levels in Iran.

But the modus operandi of the Iranian agents and their proxy Hezbollah terrorists has remained unchanged since they began to act outside the Middle East.

16/2/2012 The Writing on the Wall

Boaz Ganor

What can we learn from the series of attempted and completed terrorist attacks against Israeli diplomats of the past two days? Even at this early stage of investigation of the three incidents – in Thailand, New Delhi and Georgia – it is possible to highlight a number of common denominators.

First published in Hebrew in Globes.

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