Army: Hezbollah rocket attacks haven't slowed
By STEVEN GUTKIN
The Associated Press
More photosJERUSALEM -- Figures released by the Israeli army show that the pace of Hezbollah rockets raining down on Israel has not slowed -- and the guerrillas are nowhere close to being neutralized.
Air power alone is proving insufficient to rout Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group whose determination and intimate knowledge of the terrain are making them a tougher-than-expected foe.
Mideast observers say Hezbollah only has to remain standing -- not beat Israel -- to emerge victorious in Arab eyes.
Hezbollah's actions such as blowing up an Israeli warship with an Iranian-made radar-guided missile or firing rockets at the once out-of-range city of Haifa have shattered taboos and astounded Israel and the world.
The group has built bunkers and tunnels near the Israeli border to shelter weapons and fighters, and its members easily blend in among civilians.
"You are dealing with groups of 10 to 12 very well-organized, very well-trained people who work out of their homes," said Timur Goksel, a university professor who spent more than two decades as a senior U.N. adviser in south Lebanon. "Don't underestimate the resilience of these people."
Israel says it has already taken out nearly half of the estimated 10,000 to 12,000 Hezbollah rockets in south Lebanon, and that its blockade of the country should help keep the guerrillas from restocking.
But Israeli army figures show that there's been no letup in the number of rockets Hezbollah has fired at Israel. Since fighting began July 12, the count stands at more than 1,100, with the number more or less evenly divided over the past 12 days. At least 80 rockets hit Israel on Monday, and two days ago the number was 129.
Most of Hezbollah's rockets have been Iranian-made Katyushas and Syrian-made Raads, with ranges up to 28 miles. Israel also believes that Hezbollah possesses the Iranian-made Zalzal rocket, which has the range to hit Tel Aviv and cities farther south.
"Certainly Hezbollah doesn't seem to have suffered many casualties, and I don't think their military capability has been degraded," Goksel said.
Israel's army chief of staff maintained Friday that nearly 100 guerrillas had been killed in the fighting, which broke out July 12 when Hezbollah crossed into Israel and captured two Israeli soldiers. But military officials have privately lamented what they called the low number of Hezbollah casualties. Hezbollah itself reports only 11 dead.
Fearing a prolonged quagmire and heavy casualties among its troops, Israel says it has no intention of launching a massive land invasion to defeat Hezbollah. But the past several days' small-scale pinpoint operations to root out guerrilla positions along the border are proving far more daunting than expected, according to soldiers returning from battle.
The troops complain of difficult terrain and of being surprised by Hezbollah guerrillas who pop out from behind bushes firing automatic weapons or rocket-propelled grenades.
Two Israeli soldiers were killed and 20 were wounded Monday as they tried to take the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbail amid a heavy exchange of gunfire, missiles and mortars.
The pinpoint incursions are supposed to accomplish what the 4,000 Israeli air sorties have been unable to achieve. But the twin strategy of airstrikes and limited ground offensives will not be enough to force Hezbollah to refrain from launching attacks, said Boaz Ganor, an Israeli counterterrorism expert.