Wednesday, July 26, 2006
By Steven Gutkin, The Associated Press



JERUSALEM -- Letting Arab leaders figure out what to do about Hezbollah's weapons and assembling a strong international peacekeeping force along Israel's border are among proposals to be discussed at a meeting of key Middle East players in Rome today.

The Arab world wants an immediate cease-fire without conditions, but Israel won't stop its bloody offensive until its captured soldiers are released and a defanged Hezbollah is pushed back from its northern border.

Most of the participants at today's conference -- which include Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United States, the European Union, Russia and others -- agree on the need for a cease-fire and a beefed-up multinational force on the Israel-Lebanon border.

Most also agree that something needs to be done about Hezbollah's armed "state within a state" in south Lebanon, from which it has launched nearly 1,300 rockets at Israel during the current crisis.

But Hezbollah, the Lebanese government and moderate Arab countries say discussion of those issues can only come after a cease-fire, not before -- a position rejected by Israel and the United States.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan yesterday said all the pieces of a cease-fire package must be implemented at the same time to avoid the same fate as other failed Mideast peace plans that relied on the "sequential approach."

The international effort to broker a cease-fire will not succeed unless Israel feels that it has achieved its main goals: removal of the threat of Hezbollah attacks and freedom for two Israeli soldiers whose July 12 capture by Hezbollah guerrillas precipitated the current crisis.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's calls for an "enduring" and "sustainable" peace during her visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories yesterday reflected the Bush administration's support for Israel's aims.

It's more than just a matter of pride. Israel fears that any perceived weakness in its current fight against Hezbollah will be a boost to all Islamic militants out to destroy it, and to their main patron, Iran.

"From the Israeli point of view, to reach a cease-fire right now, without reaching some or most of its strategic goals, is not just counterproductive but dangerous," said Israeli counterterrorism expert Boaz Ganor.

Because of the near-impossibility of beginning a negotiating process with either Hezbollah or Iran -- and considering the weakness of the Lebanese government -- Mr. Ganor argues that the right address for negotiations is Syria, which, like Iran, supports, arms and funds Hezbollah. But Israel, Syria and Lebanon will not be at the conference.

Arab diplomats reported some progress over the weekend, saying Egypt and Saudi Arabia were working to entice Syria to end its support for Hezbollah.

But the Bush administration has made it a policy not to speak with regimes it doesn't like. So it's hard to see how diplomacy with Syria could end the fighting.

During Ms. Rice's visit to Beirut on Sunday, Lebanese politicians reportedly proposed that the country's factions sit down together after a cease-fire to figure out how to implement the 1989 Taif accord, which calls for extending the central government's sovereignty throughout Lebanon, with a single army.

Having Arab leaders take charge of efforts to disarm Hezbollah is likely to be an option discussed in Rome, as is the creation of an international "stabilization" force that could help the Lebanese army take control of areas vacated by Hezbollah.

Assembling such a force is likely to prove difficult. Israel says it prefers a NATO-led coalition, but the alliance's member states are already stretched in missions elsewhere. And the traumatic history of peacekeeping in Lebanon works against nations committing themselves to another try.