During the past year and a half, Al-Qaeda leader Sheikh Ayman al-Zawahiri has mentioned the State of Israel with increasing frequency. This trend reflects his desire to place Palestine at the center of jihadist discourse, and to direct jihadist efforts against Israeli territory. The latest instance of this occurred on June 6, 2013, when the Al-Sahab jihadist media institution published a new video clip by the Al-Qaeda leader titled, “65 Years of Existence for the Occupying State of Israel”. The date of publication was apparently chosen to coincide with commemoration of the nakba [tragedy], as the Palestinians call the establishment of the State of Israel, which falls on May 15.

The following surveys the main jihadist groups currently active on the African continent. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is the most significant of these groups, and is active primarily in North Africa and specifically Algeria, where it originated. AQIM has been active for a number of years, and has recently expanded its influence into West African nations such as Niger, Mali and Nigeria. The bulk of its activity is terrorist attacks against regime forces and the kidnapping of foreign citizens in exchange for ransom.

During the past year, evidence has mounted both on jihadist Web forums and in the Arab press that foreign Islamist fighters have entered Syria expressly to join the fighting against the Syrian regime. The growth of this trend is due largely to Al-Qaeda’s desire to turn Syria into an arena of jihad, not only to overthrow yet another tyrannical infidel regime, as this is conceived in the context of the struggle against the “near enemy”, but also to enhance Al-Qaeda’s standing as powerful and able to defend Sunni Muslims in blighted places like Syria – and to parlay this standing into a tool for recruiting even more adherents to its ideology.

The uploading to YouTube of an American anti-Muslim movie titled “Innocence of Muslims”, which presented the Prophet Muhammad in a derisive and demeaning manner, incited a tidal wave of Muslim anti-American protest against the US and the West on September 11, 2012. Most of the protest was violent, subsuming attacks on symbols associated with the West – such as the torching of a Kentucky Fried Chicken restaurant in Beirut, and the attempt to storm the US and German embassies in Sudan. To date, the protests have culminated in the death of US Ambassador to Libya Christopher Stevens, who was killed when rockets were fired at the US embassy in Benghazi on September 12, 2012.
 
It is our assessment, based on past experience, that global jihadist elements will in the short term strive to perpetrate terrorist attacks against American and Western targets worldwide, and parlay Islamic rage into additional support for their cause, all while whipping up a frenzy of violent protest against the movie. In the medium and long term, it is possible that they will also try to assassinate those who made and acted in the movie.

Abdullah Khalid Al-Adam (also known as Abu Ubaydah), a radical operative who is apparently close to senior members of Al-Qaeda, has become something of an oracle on all matters of security for the mujahideen, as indicated by his popular series of articles, “The Terrorism Industry”. In the book “Generous Memorial to the People of Jihad”, first made available by Al-Fajr Media in December 2011, Abu Ubaydah methodically and systematically describes everything the mujaheed needs to know before setting out on jihad.
This comprehensive guidebook, which was widely disseminated on prominent jihadist Web forums, uses supporting documentation from Islamic sources to guide the fledgling mujaheed in entering an arena rife with enemies – from within and from without. In order to stay alive long enough to promote the aims of jihad, the mujaheed need only heed the advice of Abu Ubaydah.
The book is organized in the Islamic fashion: that is, the writer presents his advice – in no particular order; justifies it; and then anchors it: in Qur’anic verses, in the Sunna and words of the Prophet [hadith], and in the rulings of important religious scholars. Throughout the book, Abu Ubaydah stresses the need for the mujaheed to be psychologically prepared for jihad, as well as to be endowed with an attitude of tolerance and flexibility toward those around him. His book advises the mujaheed how to conduct himself during actual combat, as well as during the lulls between bouts of combat. Abu Ubaydah’s advice, which is both practical and strategic, is relevant to the simple soldier of jihad, the emir, and the religious scholar who supports jihad.
The book is tacitly endorsed by Al-Qaeda, as represented in the foreword by the late Sheikh Atiyyah Allah, formerly a senior Al-Qaeda leader and prominent authority on the operational aspects of Global Jihad. Although written in 2008, the book’s publication was delayed until late 2011 – perhaps due to the events of the "Arab Spring". Even four years after it was written, this book offers a fascinating glimpse of the issues foremost in the mind of a prominent ideologue of jihad.

Since the murderous terrorist attacks perpetrated by Mohammed Al-Merah in Toulouse, France some three weeks ago, a trend has been visible of increased threats against targets in Western Europe, made by members of both jihadist Internet forums and jihadist groups, including Al-Qaeda.

In March 2012, three French soldiers, a professor and three students of a Jewish school in Toulouse (South of France) were shot and killed. The suspect of these shootings, Mohammed Merah, is a 24 years old French citizen from Algerian background. He was under the French intelligence radar since traveling twice in Pakistan and Afghanistan for operational training in 2010 and 2011. In 2011, Merah was arrested in Kandahar (Afghanistan) and deported to France. Mohammed Merah claims to be a Mujahideen, who belongs to al-Qaeda and wanted to "avenge Palestinian children" as well as "strike against the French military due to their foreign military operations". According to various French sources, Merah is linked to Forsane Alizza, a radical Salafist group that operates in France and that was disassembled in January 2012. This report discusses the ideology, modus operandi and structure of  Forsane Alizza

One of the most difficult challenges faced by Al-Qaeda is the ongoing loss of a large part of its first-, second- and even third-generation leadership, some of whom have been assassinated or arrested, and others of whom have dissociated themselves from Al-Qaeda and its terrorist methods. If we add to this the fog with which Al-Qaeda enshrouds the people who comprise its leadership, we encounter difficulty understanding who those people are. Nevertheless, and despite this heavy fog of secrecy, we can identify one unusual and important figure, whom Al-Qaeda has nurtured over the past five years, and who has received widespread attention from the jihadist media. He serves as Al-Qaeda's main spokesman and on its Shari’a Council. He is Abu Yahya Al-Libi, once considered to be the third most important and, since the death of Osama Bin Laden, the second most important of Al-Qaeda’s leaders after Ayman Al-Zawahiri, one held in high esteem by many of the mujahideen. 

Jihadist Web forums are the leading propaganda mechanism of the jihadist organizations currently huddled under the umbrella of Al- Qaeda. These forums are a well-oiled means of sending jihadist messages that have widespread resonance, and of imparting the security and self-defense measures necessary to ensuring their dissemination. The desire to continue to transmit the message of jihad has alerted the people behind these forums to the efforts of foreign intelligence services to infiltrate them, in an attempt to shoot down adherents to jihadist ideology and stop potential suicide attackers in their tracks. It is this that has led to the extensive dialogue on how to protect oneself and maintain security, technologically and through increased awareness, which in turn has kept jihadist Web forums alive, despite all obstacles.

This document summarizes a number of articles and new material which appeared in the Arab media at the end of 2011. These articles brought the following points to light:
• Al-Qaeda's upsurge occurred at the same time as the decline of Yemen’s central government, an increase in opposition forces, and increased laxness in general security in Yemen.
• Ansar al-Shariah, which is tied to Al-Qaeda in Yemen, now controls a number of regions in Southern Yemen: the cities of Azan and Habban in Shabwa Governorate; most of Zinjibar, the capital of Abyan Governorate; and additional areas in Shabwa and Abyan Governorates. These two provinces are the organization's strongholds in Yemen.
• Al-Qaeda has been fighting protracted battles against the Yemeni army for several months. It has a large number of fighters and is entrenched in city centers. This pattern of behavior differs from Al-Qaeda’s image as a small terrorist organization that holes up in mountains and caves to which access is difficult, out of fear of the Yemeni forces. In provinces where the government has strong control, Al-Qaeda intends to continue with its previous practice of using sleeper cells to perpetrate terrorist attacks.
• In addition to fighting the Yemeni army, Al-Qaeda carries out various activities in place of the government, in those areas which are under its control: protecting the inhabitants' personal security, aiding the needy, maintaining infrastructure, conducting criminal trials (obviously in accordance with Islamic religious law [shari'a]), and establishing a media and propaganda arm.
• Al-Qaeda obtains boatloads of arms and activists from Somalia, and is recruiting a significant number of activists, for what appears to be expansion of armed conflict with the Yemeni army and security forces.