This paper will examine the risk posed by the Islamic State (IS) for using a chemical weapon against Israel in the near term (next two-three years). Risk is determined by the threat (intent and capability) and vulnerability.
Therefore, this paper will mainly focus on capability and assume the intent is already present religiously, politically and ideologically. The main purpose of the paper will analyze ISIS’ abilities and finally focus on Israel’s capabilities and capacities to prevent, mitigate and respond to the risk from the Islamic State’s chemical weapon (CW) potential use (vulnerability).
Given the risk and the capabilities of the Islamic State to use a chemical weapon against Israel, Israel appears to be best positioned to mitigate the risk. Even if they are unsuccessful in preventing a CW deployment by the Islamic State, Israel is also prepared medically and psychologically to deal with it.