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Lebanon has been in a state of political paralysis since the end of Michel Suleiman's term as president in May of 2014. The current parliament has been unable, or unwilling, to identify and elect a candidate that garners the necessary number of votes for more than twenty-five attempted elections. The current standstill has been the longest in the history of the country and largely attributed to the unsettled civil war in Syria and the instability in the region.
The following paper will consist of three major parts. Part one will give relevant background information to set the complex contextualization of Lebanese politics in the scope of the country's history. The second part will outline the current Presidential deadlock that has paralyzed the country, including a profile on the current fifteen candidates that have their name in the running for election. The third and final part will attempt to forecast the future of Lebanon in three separate contingencies: the election of a pro-Hezbollah government, the election of an anti-Hezbollah government and finally what will happen if the deadlock continues in the current atmosphere of instability and shifting power dynamics in the region. The final contingency will break down the influence of the elections on the political, economic and security of Lebanon considering the influence of Iran and the Syrian conflict, especially is the Assad regime loses power.
The land of Cedars has been in a constant state of conflict since the French occupation ended. The small country has faced down many invaders and occupiers, a civil war, and multiple years of violent acts terrorism. Is a peaceful resolution so the current political standoff possible? Can Hezbollah maintain autonomy and support within Lebanon as it continues to fight outside battles? The Syrian refuges have become a drain on the Lebanese economy and the lack of a commander in Chief has hurt Lebanon's ability to address the increasing number of Sunni terrorists using Lebanon's Syrian border as a staging area for attacks and using the refugee camps as recruiting grounds.